This is no ordinary midterm election. And Washington Democrats are in trouble.
Until recently, political pundits everywhere assumed Democrats would win big in November. Historically, midterm elections almost always favor the party that does not control the White House.
Generic ballot polling has consistently been the best predictor of the mood of the electorate during a midterm season. These polls usually ask likely voters “If the election were held today, would you vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress?”
The most recent generic polling is awful news for Democrats.
New polls show Democrats have lost their 15-point lead over Republicans, dropping to nearly dead even. This is far worse than where Democrats stood in the 2014 midterm elections, when Republicans trounced Democrats the following fall.
Trump’s incredible State of the Union address showed his love for America, while viewers watched Democrats sit on their hands and sneer the president when he praised our flag, our soaring economy, our National Anthem. Democrats even refused to applaud for the lowest unemployment rate for African Americans in recorded history. It was a public relations disaster for the left.
Such optics has hurt Democratic fundraising. The DNC is completely broke, and their fundraising has dried up. Politico reports that on-the-ground operatives worry they won’t have the resources to build the infrastructure they need to compete effectively in the midterms and in the run-up to 2020. Jane Kleeb, Nebraska Democrat Party Chair warns, “Donors, small and large, are so over the party.”
“We’re all aware the money is not flowing in the way we hoped it would,” said longtime DNC member Alice Germond, a former secretary of the committee.
CNN, the de facto media arm of the Democrat Party, even concedes that national Republicans have $40 million more in the bank than national Democrats.
It’s hard for millions of working Americans to get excited about supporting Democrats when Trump’s tax cuts gave them huge bonuses and raises at work.
Perhaps what is most shocking for Republicans and Democrats alike is the increase in Trump’s popularity among black Americans. 85 percent of black Americans say they oppose more immigration and amnesty for illegal immigrants. Yet the war cry for amnesty is all they are hearing from their liberal politicians. As a result, 23 percent of black men now approve of Trump. That is twice as many as during the November 2016 election. If Democrats lose even one third of the black vote, they cannot win another election.
There is no guarantee that Republicans will do well in the midterm elections. But based on the polls, the soaring economy, and the Democrats’ complete lack of a message (other than amnesty for illegals), a significant win for Democrats will be very difficult.